General Election 🗳️

Things Can Only Get Better?

Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, is set to succeed Rishi Sunak as the UK Prime Minister following a sweeping electoral victory, the most decisive for any British political party in this century.

Throughout the night, individual constituency results indicated a strong overall majority for Labour with a modestly increased share of the vote, marking the party's return to government for the first time since 2010. A dejected Sunak conceded defeat shortly after 4:30 AM, following a campaign that failed to close the persistent polling gap with Labour that had been a permanent feature during his government. Starmer's Labour is poised for a historic victory, akin to Tony Blair's win in 1997 with New Labour, with projections showing the party winning around 408 seats out of 650, far surpassing the 326 needed for a majority. This surge includes remarkable swings of over 20 percentage points in some constituencies, such as Tamworth and Lichfield.

This election, however, was more a rejection of 14 years of Conservative governments than an endorsement of Labour. The Conservative vote plummeted while Labour's increased only slightly. Sunak's party garnered approximately 22.3% of the vote with most seats declared, a steep decline from the 42.4% and are on track for their worst performance in over three centuries. Several key Conservative figures, including Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, lost their seats. Liz Truss, with the effects of her disastrous 2022 mini-budget still lingering, also lost her seat.

In Scotland, the independence movement suffered a significant setback. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which had dominated for a decade, was projected to secure only eight seats, a drastic fall from 48 in 2019. Labour capitalised on this decline, winning 35 seats by early morning, including every seat in Glasgow.

Nigel Farage's hard-right Reform UK also made notable gains for the small and new party that it is, winning four seats, including Farage's first parliamentary seat (after multiple failed attempts in the past). Although fewer than initially forecast, these victories in Great Yarmouth, Boston and Skegness, and retaining Ashfield, ensure Farage's continued media prominence. The party's strong second-place finishes in numerous constituencies suggest it could challenge Labour in future elections, particularly if Starmer's administration stumbles.

The 2019 election hinted at a realignment with Conservatives gaining in traditional Labour areas (the red wall), largely due to Brexit support. However, Labour's significant comeback, driven by voter dissatisfaction with Conservative economic policies, suggests no permanent shift in political loyalties. British voters are clearly willing to switch allegiances based on performance, indicating that a landslide victory in one election does not preclude a crushing defeat in the next.

The Exit Poll; the What, the Why, and the How

The release of the exit poll is one of the defining moments of every general election. Broadcast when polling stations close at 10pm, it offers a considerably more reliable prediction of the final result of the vote than the surveys released in the weeks before. Peculiarities about the UK electoral system make it extremely difficult to predict the outcome. But the British exit poll is widely regarded as one of the best of its kind in the world, and helped turn its co-creator, Professor John Curtice, into a leading expert on voting behaviour.

The model used today was created in 2005 by Professor Curtice and statistician David Firth. All exit polls work in fundamentally the same way: voters are asked which candidate they went for as they leave their polling station. But with limited time and resources, organisers can’t ask every single person in every single station – far from it. Pollsters from Ipsos talk to around 20,000 people across 130 polling stations – a drop in the ocean compared to the millions who turn out to the 40,000 stations across the UK. Voters are selected at random throughout the day and asked to ‘vote’ again on a mock ballot paper which is placed into the exit poll. (Around 80% agree, in case you were curious.) At regular intervals throughout the day, interviewers send their results so far back to Ipsos’ HQ.

But the work doesn’t stop there. Layers of statistical genuis are then used to turn the small sample of results into something that accurately represents the entire country. This is crucial because voting behaviour varies between different types of polling stations and parts of the country. Voters can also refuse to vote, vote by post, or vote in person but refuse the survey, potentially skewing the result. Experts say one of the main ways this is accounted for is the careful study of how voting behaviour changes from election to election. For this reason, the polls are pretty much always carried out in the same places.

Experts say it isn’t technically possible to describe the accuracy of the exit poll, which is usually measured as a ‘margin of error’, because it isn’t based entirely on random sampling. But the projection is usually extremely close – usually off by only a few seats. For example, in 2010, it correctly predicted the exact number of seats won by the Tories. Indeed, since 2005 it has called the majority exactly right three times. In two cases, it was less than ten seats off from the final result. This consistent accuracy has cemented the British exit poll's reputation as a critical tool in election night coverage, providing the public and politicians alike with an early, trustworthy glimpse of the electoral outcome.

China’s Electric Vehicles: How Unhappy is the West?

Written by Angelique M

The use of tariffs is a hotly debated topic amongst economists following the rise of the global economy. Nevertheless, tariffs and duties have been applied to Chinese electric vehicles, EVs, after a rise in supply, threatening a major sector of China’s economy.

Degrowth?

Written by Tara K

If there’s one value that will be instilled in me forever by my grandma, it’s to treasure and take care of everything you own. During one conversation her, she told me about her childhood, and how she and her family lived. It was a simple life by modern standards. But ‘simple’ doesn’t translate to unhappiness. For they had everything they needed. 

But the fundamental principle that governs our economics is economic growth particularly at a macro scale with rising GDP. Although this can be a useful indicator of rising wages and better public services which are vital to a country and its citizens it doesn’t reveal the full picture. We often use this single indicator of a rising GDP to measure our economic health and stability but in reality this number is far too simplistic to define our economies.

Opportunities

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The whole Girl Economics Team ♥️